Survivor 46 Presents: Who Will Make It Out of Tribal Council?

Jeff brought Twizzlers, I brought wine, but no one brought their idol (again)

Survivor 46 episode 11 might be the episode where the person voted out is someone who might’ve taken a “spot” away from another person in the finals. The last few votes have been deemed as major threats, but tonight’s vote – at least from what we’ve seen during the season – has been more of an outcast and not likely to get many votes in the end.

After last week’s chaotic episode that saw an Applebee’s-sized blowup at Q by Liz for not being picked for reward, a similar circumstance took place this week. The immunity challenge was sprinkled with a dash of delivery pizza to the winner, and, of course, the winner would get to pick castaways to join them. On top of that, Maria has been listed as a top-tier threat to win the game.

Now, Q was also listed in that threat conversation with her as targets 1 and 2, but I’m not sure why someone so vilified in the game is still considered a threat to actually win the game.

Are We Missing Something Regarding a Player’s Threat Level in Survivor 46?

At the start of Survivor 46 episode 11, it’s made very clear by other players that Maria is in this game to win it and her move to blindside Tiffany puts her on that level. Alongside her day 1 partner in Charlie, she’s also made Q a very tight ally. On the flip side, Liz hates Q. She wants his torch snuffed, but she pushed that aside last week to vote for Tiffany.

This week, she’s again frustrated that Q went on reward instead of her. Although Maria was the main target, she won immunity and then immediately picked Ben to join her on the reward. She then hemmed and hawed at a very difficult decision and made Q and Liz play “rock, paper, scissors.” And Q won. In all of this food controversy, the group of players remaining in the game seem capable of making decisions beyond what they might be feeling.

Both Liz and Charlie have discussed wanting to get rid of Q, but for completely different reasons. In spite of that, and after Maria wins immunity, a different target becomes a potential option and the reason behind it might be clearer than what we’re seeing. To this point, Venus has not seemed to be connected to many of the castaways. From her tribemates, it seems like her trustworthiness and upfront approach doesn’t make her easy to work with.

If that’s the case, why would a vote for her make sense (if she’s not considered a risk to win the game)?

Turning a Vote Towards Someone Less Viable Might Be a Winning Move?

Last week I wondered if we were headed towards a Q, Liz, and Venus final three. It was just a side comment, because the new era has had several winners where their wins weren’t clearly visible until the final votes. Yes, Q seems to be disliked by many, but has there been a greater affection towards Venus this season? She also found a hidden immunity idol tonight.

And after stating she wouldn’t tell anyone about it, she hinted at having “something up her sleeve” to Charlie. The fact that she made a comment about having something, but wasn’t willing to share more details was all Charlie needed to hear. This was a major red flag for him; her having an advantage means she could derail a future plan. In the game of Survivor, if you do not vote someone out, even if you think they can’t win, they could fill a spot in the finals where you could be sitting.

So, by making Venus a target (along with Q), it is potentially making players with a “stronger resume” have a better chance of making it to the end. In this case, everyone must’ve assumed that Venus did have an idol. Venus voted for Q, but almost everyone else voted for Venus. Ben voted for Kenzie, but I’m going to assume that vote was to ensure a tie vote, in case Venus played her idol. In case of a tie, the majority could vote out Kenzie and keep Q.

Where Is Survivor 46 going and Who Will Win?

After the Survivor 46 premiere, I took a guess and picked Maria as the winner. At this point, it would seem her threat level is too high to make it much further in the game. Yes, she could win immunities and coordinate votes to get others out of the game, but it’s obvious her once tightest ally in Charlie recognizes her dominant stance in the game right now.

It doesn’t appear (to me) that Q would receive many votes at the end. We also haven’t seen a lot of Ben over the past few episodes. Liz has had more screentime in the past few episodes, but her game doesn’t seem heavily defined in any clear way that indicates the other castaways consider her a viable threat.

This would leave Maria, Charlie, and Kenzie as potential winners. Anything is possible, so technically everyone has a chance of winning this game, so it will be interesting to see how the last couple of episodes play out. Who do you think will win Survivor 46?